We are starting to build data that is usable in predicting future outcomes. The information we get from the first four weeks is still not going to give us enough to be very confident in our predictions, but we should be able to start to see where we are looking correct and where we completely whiffed. NFL is a weekly league, things change very quickly. Most analysts want to tell you that whatever happened last week explains everything, but that's far from reality. Especially with the low scoring contests we've had so far this season.
Looking at the overall meta of scoring this year it seems that defenses have gotten sophisticated enough that QB's can't get clean pre-snap reads. Leading to not being able to get the ball to wide receivers consistently, and overall scoring is WAY down because of it. Strong run game and short passes are the way to defeat the cover-2 defense, so running backs get more touches. It doesn't seem as if there is some sort of bell-cow running back Renaissance, it's just that all other parts of offenses are getting stopped.
The Process
My usual process in developing these Fantasy Football Rankings is to only take data from the previous six weeks, I truly believe anything older than that holds little relevance unless there is a player returning from injury or some reason to discount the newer information. In Week 5 we are only beginning to build information we can be confident in.
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Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings
When examining these fantasy football rankings - Week 5, take into consideration that we are really only looking at positional ranks, not flex or overall rankings. When it comes to who you start in the flex a lot will depend on your specific league rules and roster construction. If players are ranked within 3 spots of each other the difference between them is negligible, they are expected to score the same amount of points, in those cases go with your gut, flip a coin, or join our FREE Discord Channel.
Quarterback
Running Back
The Colts are not considering injured reserve as an option for Jonathan Taylor (ankle), who sustained a 'mild' high-ankle sprain during the team's 27-24 win over the Steelers in Week 4, Mike Chappell of Fox 59 News Indianapolis reports. Even if Taylor's high-ankle sprain isn't as serious as similar issues he's dealt with in the past, these injuries more often than not result in players having to spend some time on the sideline. Trey Sermon will figure to operate as the Colts' starting running back if Taylor can't suit up on the road against Jacksonville on Sunday, while Tyler Goodson would step into the No. 2 role. Source: RotoWire
Bijan Robinson saw fewer than half of Atlanta's running back rushes on Sunday for the first time this season. His previous low was 60.9% back in Week 2. Tyler Allgeier, meanwhile, saw a season high 53% running back rush share. @LateRoundQB
Chuba Hubbard has seen 75% of Carolina's running back rushes over his last two games after being around the 49% mark during his first two. He's scored 27.9 and 22.1 PPR points in his last two. @LateRoundQB
Rico Dowdle's running back rush shares in Weeks 1 and 2: 32.0 percent and 33.3 percent.
Rico Dowdle's running back rush shares in Weeks 3 and 4: 61.5 percent and 61.1 percent.
@LateRoundQB
Kareem Hunt has been complete dust over the past year and a half, but he saw two-thirds of Kansas City's running back rushes and a 10.7 percent target share on Sunday, leading the KC backfield in Week 4.
Bucky Irving saw his RB rush share dip week-over-week from 56 percent to 48 percent, but he got over the 40 percent snap share mark for the first time this season in Week 4, per @LateRoundQB
Cam Akers saw 82 percent of Houston's running back rushes in Week 3, and that fell to 62 percent in Week 4. Joe Mixon is expected to return so we can drop Akers.
Wide Receiver
Dontayvion Wicks is a solid starter for the short term while Christian Watson is out. He reportedly will not be going to go on the IR with his ankle injury, but it looked bad enough that he could miss three to four weeks. There are multiple ways Wicks pays off for the entire rest of the season. He could win the job outright, the talent difference between Wicks and Watson is negligible at this point. In Watson’s first games back from injuries over the past two years he saw just 25 percent, 9 percent, 46 percent, and 41 percent of the team snaps, making him unusable for fantasy. Wicks also has contingency value if any of the other receivers go down.
Malik Nabers now has three games with at least a 35% target share through Week 4. Only six wideouts since 2011 have started a season with a 35% target share in three of their first four games.@LateRoundQB
Wan'Dale Robinson saw a 37 percent target share in Week 4 and has dropped below a 24 percent target share in just one game this year. His season-long target share is 27.9 percent, per @LateRoundQB
Jordan Whittington saw a full-time role in Week 4 Whittington had a; 97 percent route participation, 28 percent target share, and a 26 percent air yards share. It won't be long before Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua return, but we could see something in Week 5 against the Packers.
Tight End
Tucker Kraft ran 48 routes to Luke Musgrave's 17 in Week 4, per PFF. Kraft has seen at least a 15 percent target share in each of his last three games. @LateRoundQB
Erick All saw a season (and career) high 13 percent target share on Sunday, but his route participation (30%) wasn't much different from his previous two games. @LateRoundQB
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