We are starting to build data that is usable in predicting future outcomes, but the information we get from the first three weeks is still not going to give us enough to be very confident in our predictions. NFL is a weekly league, things change very quickly. Most analysts want to tell you that whatever happened last week explains everything, but that's far from reality. Especially with the low scoring contests we've had so far this season.
Looking at the overall meta of scoring this year it seems that defenses have gotten sophisticated enough that QB's can't get clean pre-snap reads. Leading to not being able to get the ball to wide receivers consistently, and overall scoring is WAY down because of it. Strong run game and short passes are the way to defeat the cover-2 defense, so running backs get more touches. It doesn't seem as if there is some sort of bell-cow running back Renaissance, it's just that all other parts of offenses are getting stopped.
The Process
My usual process in developing these Fantasy Football Rankings is to only take data from the previous six weeks, I truly believe anything older than that holds little relevance unless there is a player returning from injury or some reason to discount the newer information. In Week 4 we have very little information we can be confident in, at least 30 percent of what we saw in Week 1 won’t be repeated in the next five weeks.
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News or Hype?
Post-game reports become important, but they are usually biased so can’t be taken verbatim. Week 4 rankings keep with a similar mode as Week 3 and are fairly narrative based. We will try to keep-up with as much information as possible as the week progresses. I think the best way to start our Week 4 approach is to look at implied team totals based on Vegas odds and adjust from there. We need to pay attention to DFS articles and individual player prop-bets (over/under) to get a good idea of how to project median outcomes.
Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings
When examining these fantasy football weekly rankings, take into consideration that I am really only looking at positional ranks, not flex or overall rankings. When it comes to who you start in the flex a lot will depend on your specific league rules and roster construction. If players are ranked within 3 spots of each other the difference between them is negligible, they are expected to score the same amount of points, in those cases go with your gut, flip a coin, or join our FREE Discord Channel.
Quarterback
Per PFF data, Patrick Mahomes is currently second-to-last among starting quarterbacks in his rate of throwing it 20 or more air yards. He's last when looking at 15 or more air yard throws.
Anthony Richardson is currently last in the league in completion percentage over expected, according to Next Gen Stats. Only Bryce Young, Will Levis, Caleb Williams, Deshaun Watson, and Bo Nix have been worse in EPA per drop back.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley was the only Philadelphia running back to get a carry on Sunday.
Breece Hall saw 53 percent of New York's running back rushes in Week 3. His running back rush share per week this year has gone from 94.1 percent in Week 1 to 66.7 percent in Week 2 to 53.3 percent this past week. He has still seen 16, 14, and 16 rush attempts in those three games. Expect Brealon Allen to get much of the fourth quarter workload whenever the Jets have a stable lead.
Jonathan Taylor has seen a double-digit percentage target share in both of his last two games after failing to see a target in Week 1.
Alvin Kamara saw 96.3 percent of New Orleans' running back rushes against the Eagles, his second-highest running back rush share of his career. I’m looking for Taysom Hill to come back from injury and steal about 20 percent of those touches.
Rhamondre Stevenson saw a 13.0 percent and 20.8 percent target share in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. He failed to register a target in Week 3. Per PFF, Stevenson ran 13 routes, while the team's other running backs ran 15.
JK Dobbins saw an 83 percent running back rush share on Sunday when his previous season high was 47.6 percent. Gus Edwards, saw a season low 3 rush attempts.
D'Onta Foreman's percentage of team running back rushes by week:
Week 1: 0 percent
Week 2: 63.6 percent
Week 3: 16.7 percent
Tyrone Tracy saw his highest running back rush share (23 percent) and snap share (28 percent) of his season in Week 3.
Javonte Williams has faced eight or more defenders in the box a league-high 54% of the time this season.
Rest of the top five:
Ray Davis: 47.3%
Jordan Mason: 38.8%
Derrick Henry: 33.9%
James Cook: 29.2%
Cowboy's RB Week 3
Rico Dowdle: 32 snaps (46%)
Zeke Elliott: 14 snaps (20%)
Deuce Vaughn: 5 snaps (7%)
Wide Receiver
Malik Nabers currently has a 37.8 percent target share. That's the highest in the NFL.
Garrett Wilson has had target shares of 37.9 percent, 20.7 percent, and 26.5 percent, over his first three games this year. The 28.4 percent target share per game rate isn't far off from his 29.8 percent rate last season. Those hoping for a break-out should cool their jets.
Rashid Shaheed didn't catch a pass in Week 3, but he saw a 21.7 percent target share and saw three targets inside the 5 yard-line. He's now hit a 20 percent target share each week this season, something he did just twice last year.
Tank Dell has seen fewer than 15 percent of Houston's targets in each of their last two games. He was below a 15 percent target share just three times in healthy games last season.
Romeo Doubs has led the Packers in routes run in each of their first three games.
DeAndre Hopkins' route participation by week:
Week 1: 24%
Week 2: 51%
Week 3: 50%
Todd Bowles yesterday on Mike Evans: “We’ve got to get him involved more.” He has 15 targets in three games -- that's a 38 percent drop from his targets last year. He's had at least 100 targets every year of his career -- on pace for 85 right now, per @gregauman.
Sean McDermott: “We sat Keon (Coleman) for the first quarter of the game.. It was an issue with being on time.”
Tight End
Cole Kmet ran a route on 33.3 percent of Chicago's drop backs in Week 1, 61.7 percent in Week 2 and 71.4 percent in Week 3. Looks like the Gerald Everett experiment is finally over.
***The following is a continuation of Nathan Jahnke's thread from above
Injuries certainly haven't helped. George Kittle, Evan Engram, David Njoku and Jake Ferguson were all top-10 in ADP and have missed at least a game. Last season only Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Logan Thomas all missed a game early.
This season, 8 teams are doing this.
Bengals (Gesicki 27% in 12 personnel vs. Sample/All)
Broncos (Dulcich 12% vs. Trautman/Adkins)
Colts (Grayson 42% vs. Alie-Cox/Ogletree)
Commanders (Ertz 31% vs. Bates/Sinnott)
Dolphins (Smith 28% vs. Smythe/Hill)
Seahawks (Fant 22% vs. Barner/Brown, but only starting in Week 3 when Brown came back)
Steelers (Freiermuth 47% vs. Washington/Pruitt)
Titans (Okonkwo 37% vs. Whyle/Vannett)
Another 7 teams are splitting time in 11 personnel, with both TEs playing in 12, and both playing between 30-70% of 11 personnel snaps.
Bears (Kmet/Everett)
Bills (Knox/Kincaid)
Panthers (Sanders/Tremble)
Patriots (Henry/Hooper)
Raiders (Bowers/Mayer)
Ravens (Andrews/Likely)
Saints (Moreau/Johnson)
Last season, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, Pat Freiermuth and Dalton Kincaid had top 12 ADP and fit in this category. Kincaid was the only one to finish in the top 12, largely thanks to Knox missing time. 6 other teams also fit in this description last year, with Jake Ferguson as the only other TE emerging in the top 12.
The rotation Mark Andrews and Dalton Kincaid are in is very concerning. Brock Bowers was great in Weeks 1 and 2, but Week 3 showed that he needs an elite target share while in his current rotation. Ideally, all three see an increase in snaps. If not, this will be a long season.
This leaves 13 TEs who have seen a decent role in both 11 and 12 personnel this season, down from 16 from last season.
Cade Otton, Trey McBride, Hayden Hurst, Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, Kyle Pitts, Theo Johnson, Tyler Conklin, Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, Colby Parkinson, Dalton Schultz and Johnny Mundt.
So fewer tight ends have stayed healthy, more tight ends have been in a well defined committee, and the tight ends who are consistently are the field aren't getting targeted as much. Throw in the lack of end zone targets, and offenses in general not playing as well, and we have a disaster.
Cincinnati Bengals rookie TE Erick All has been great with limited opportunities. Among TEs with 25 or more routes run he is; TE2 with 29 percent target per route run rate, TE6 in first-down per route run rate (10.7%), and TE6 in yards per route run (1.93).
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