We are starting to build data that is usable in predicting future outcomes, but the information we get from the first two weeks is some of the weakest we will see all season.
The Process
My usual process is to only take data from the previous six weeks, I truly believe anything older than that holds little relevance unless there is a player returning from injury or some reason to discount the newer information. In Week 3 we have very little information we can be confident in, at least 30 percent of what we saw in Week 1 won’t be repeated in the next five weeks.
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News or Hype?
Post-game reports become important, but they are usually biased so can’t be taken verbatim. Week 3 rankings keep with a similar mode as Week 2 and are fairly narrative based. We will try to keep-up with as much information as possible as the week progresses. I think the best way to start our Week 3 approach is to look at implied team totals based on Vegas odds and adjust from there. We need to pay attention to DFS articles and individual player prop-bets (over/under) to get a good idea of how to project median outcomes.
Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings
When examining these fantasy football weekly rankings, take into consideration that I am really only looking at positional ranks, not flex or overall rankings. When it comes to who you start in the flex a lot will depend on your specific league rules and roster construction. If players are ranked within 3 spots of each other the difference between them is negligible, they are expected to score the same amount of points, in those cases go with your gut, flip a coin, or join our FREE Discord Channel.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert averaged 39 pass attempts per game in his first four years in the league. Through two games with Jim Harbaugh, he is averaging 23 pass attempts per game, per @JeffKrisko.
Being a Packers Fan Requires Patients
QB Jordan Love is targeting Week 5 for his return from an MCL sprain, though there is a chance he beats that goal, per Ian Rapoport.
Rookie QB's Looking Green - Caleb Williams
Running Back
Alvin Kamara has 66 PPR points through two games which is the third-most for any RB through the first two weeks of a season since 2010, per Jacob Gibbs @jagibbs_23.
Antonio Gibson finished with more rushing yards (96) than Rhamondre Stevenson (81) in Week 2, but their roles didn't change. Stevenson ran 20 routes to Gibson's 4, and Gibson only had a 24% snap rate.
Jerome Ford's usage fell way off in Week 2. His snap rate went from 73 percent to 42 percent and his RB rush share went from 86 percent to 32 percent. D'Onta Foreman rushed 14 times for 42 yards.
Alexander Mattison vultured a TD but otherwise barely played in Week 2.
Zamir White's snap rate:
39% - Week 1
65% - Week 2
White's route participation:
25% - Week 1
54% - Week 2
per Jacob Gibbs @jagibbs_23
Ty Chandler had one more rush attempt (10) than Aaron Jones (9) in Week 2, Jones played 61% of the snaps and ran 20 routes to Chandler's 35% and 9 routes.
Wide Receiver
Chris Olave led the Saints with a 37.5% target share in Week 2, big games are coming.
Malik Nabers became just the second WR under the age of 22 years old, since 2010 to finish a game with at least 15 targets and 200 air yards, per Jacob Gibbs @jagibbs_23.
Brandon Aiyuk's route rate rose from 79% in Week 1 to 93% in Week 2. He’s only been targeted on 15 percent of his routes so far, most likely because he has been behind since his hold-out. . In 2023, that rate was 24 percent, we are likely to see that climb with Deebo out for a couple weeks. 49ers WR Deebo Samuel strained his calf Sunday and is expected to miss a couple weeks, per HC Kyle Shanahan.
C.J. Stroud and the Texans face the blitz-heavy Brian Flores-led Minnesota Vikings defense in Week 3. So far this season Nico Collins has accounted for 62% of Stroud's passing yardage vs. the blitz! (@jagibbs_23)
Jameson Williams
Rashid Shaheed ranks 15th at WR in yards per route run since entering the NFL.
YPRR (2022-24):
14th - Cooper Kupp (2.15)
15th - Shaheed (2.11)
16th - Deebo Samuel (2.07)
per Jacob Gibbs @jagibbs_23
Quentin Johnston led the Chargers in routes, targets, air yards, and receiving in Week 2, Josh Palmer was third among Chargers WRs in routes run.
Jaylen Tolbert led the Cowboys in targets (9) and air yards (116) in Week 2, finishing with 6 catches for 82 yards.
Tight End
Las Vegas Raiders rookie tight end Brock Bowers through two career games:
- 17 targets
- 15 receptions
- 156 receiving yards
That's the most receiving yards through an initial two games of a TE career dating back to 2000.
Isaiah Likely played 70% of the offensive snaps in Week 1. That rate fell to 49% in Week 2.
Likely's target share:
30% -- Week 1
10% -- Week 2
With Jake Ferguson injured, Luke Schoonmaker did a near-perfect Ferguson impression today.
- 14.6% target share
- 10.3 fantasy points
Ferguson averaged a 15.8% target share and 10.3 fantasy points in 2023, per @RyanJ_Heath.
“Isaiah Likely finished with 9 receptions for 111 yards, both career highs, and a touchdown on 12 total targets.Likely’s increased role in the offense correlated with an increased usage of 12 personnel. The Ravens featured 12 personnel on 52.7% of plays, the team’s highest mark in a game since 2022. Likely’s biggest play of the game was his 49-yard touchdown which he gained 31 yards after catch, +28 over expected, the most YACOE on a reception of his career. Likely had only a 0.3% chance of scoring a touchdown when he caught the ball according to the NGS expected YAC model.” - per NextGen Stats
Brock Bowers, as a rookie in his very first game, earned a 21.2% target share, ran 77.5% of the routes, 65.5% of them from a WR spot, had the second most targets and the second most yards of any TE.
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