By Sunday evening nearly everyone interested in NFL and fantasy football will be talking about how we just witnessed the craziest first week of football ever. Like clock-work everyone will be amazed how some third string RB and special-team WR scored three TD’s or went for 150-plus yards. There is tremendous variance in football every week, we just don’t have relevant, applicable data to go from yet. We can use stats from last season, but every team has changed since then, some in very significant ways, on both offense and defense.
The Process
My usual process is to only take data from the previous six weeks, I truly believe anything older than that holds little relevance unless there is a player returning from injury or some reason to discount the newer information. In Week 1 we have very little information we can be confident in. The last six weeks of the previous season can give some indication, and the preseason could provide a glimpse of what’s to come or it could be a mirage.
News or Hype?
Camp reports become important, but they are usually biased so can’t be taken verbatim. Week 1 rankings become fairly narrative based, and I will try to include that information as the week progresses. I think the best way to start our Week 1 approach is to look at implied team totals based on Vegas odds and adjust from there. We need to pay attention to DFS articles and individual player prop-bets (over/under) to get a good idea of how to project median outcomes.
Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings
When examining these fantasy football weekly rankings, take into consideration that I am really only looking at positional ranks, not flex or overall rankings. When it comes to who you start in the flex a lot will depend on your specific league rules and roster construction. If players are ranked within 3 spots of each other the difference between them is negligible, they are expected to score the same amount of points, in those cases go with your gut, flip a coin, or join our FREE Discord Channel.
Quarterback
Running Back
Wide Receiver
Tight End
Kicker
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